NFL Week 13 – The Leftovers

If the three games on Thursday were Thanksgiving, then the rest of the games are the leftovers.  But just like Thanksgiving dinner, sometimes the leftovers have some of the best stuff.  Food has had more time to settle together and you can do fun mixes at lunch that get you odd glares during holiday dinner.  Perhaps the analogy has gone too far now, but there are definitely some good games left for today and tomorrow.

As for Thanksgiving, the models were mostly on.  All three favored teams won, and roughly in line with how much they were expected to win by.  Dallas won but not by double digits (or over a touchdown, which is what I saw the line move to), Baltimore won close after Pittsburgh needed about fifteen tries to legally get in the end zone but couldn’t do it again for a two-point conversion, and the exception was Detroit absolutely taking it to the Packers.  The game wasn’t even as close as the final 30 point margin; the Lions did whatever they wanted and only got stopped when they turned the ball over.  Green Bay didn’t score a touchdown on offense.  It was a great way to snap the Thanksgiving Day loss streak.  Let’s hope the pattern keeps for the rest of the spread picks:

home away Spread Odds Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Detroit GB -6.5 -110 1.51 -2.58 1.68
Dallas Oakland -7.5 -110 4.49 -1.82 4.45
Baltimore Pittsburgh -2.5 -110 1.74 -5.88 1.55
Cleveland Jacksonville -7 -110 5.12 -6.5 4.65
Indy Tennessee -4 -110 3.45 -1.38 3.58
KC Denver 6.5 -110 1.55 -0.41 1.07
Minnesota Chicago -1 -110 -0.9 -4.55 -0.63
Jets Miami -2 -110 -1.74 -6.85 -0.86
Philly Arizona -3 -115 3.26 -1 3.97
Carolina TB -7 -110 8.39 2.22 6.76
Buffalo Atlanta -4 -110 0.46 -4.87 0.9
SF StL -7.5 -110 6.06 2.25 5.07
SD Cincy 1.5 -110 2.01 -2.51 2.91
Houston NE 7 -115 -1.83 -6.46 -0.55
Washington Giants -1 -110 1.37 -4.78 2.16
Seattle NO -5 -110 2.46 -0.32 2.17

One of the good games today should be Denver-Kansas City.  As Bill Simmons noted, with the game in KC you might think the line should be at Chiefs +1 or +2, but then you’re getting a few extra points.  Well, now the line is up even closer to a touchdown at SBR where I get my numbers.  I know that Denver looked good in their first game and KC has a couple of defenders out, but I’m not sure what added another point or two to the line.  Either way, a Denver win keeps them in the driver’s seat for the AFC number one seed.  Here are the rest of Simmons’ lines and our picks against them.

home away Simmons Spread Simmons Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Detroit GB -6.5 GB GB GB GB
Dallas Oakland -9.5 Dallas Oakland Oakland Oakland
Baltimore Pittsburgh -3 Baltimore Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pittsburgh
Cleveland Jacksonville -7 Jacksonville Jacksonville Jacksonville Jacksonville
Indy Tennessee -4 Indy Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee
KC Denver 4.5 KC KC KC KC
Minnesota Chicago 1 Chicago Minnesota Chicago Minnesota
Jets Miami -1 Jets Miami Miami Miami
Philly Arizona -3.5 Arizona Arizona Arizona Philly
Carolina TB -8.5 TB TB TB TB
Buffalo Atlanta -3.5 Buffalo Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta
SF StL -7.5 SF StL StL StL
SD Cincy -2 SD SD Cincy SD
Houston NE 8.5 NE Houston Houston Houston
Washington Giants 1.5 Giants Washington Giants Washington
Seattle NO -6 NO NO NO NO

A couple other games have big playoff implications.  Indy and Tennessee are playing a suddenly close divisional game.  If the Titans win, they stay even with Baltimore for the AFC sixth seed and would only be a game behind the Colts for the AFC South title.  If the Colts win, they keep pace ahead of the Bengals for the three seed, which will keep them from facing the Chiefs in the first round.  On the NFC side, the Eagles and Cardinals face off.  The Eagles need to win to move back into a tie with Dallas for the division lead.  A win for Arizona would keep them tied with the 49ers, or they would even move ahead if the Rams can pull an upset.  That would also put them potentially into the playoffs for the time being.  A loss would keep both teams on the outside looking in.  Here are the rest of the winner/moneyline picks.

home away Home Line Away Line Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Detroit GB -260 240 0.545 0.512 0.556
Dallas Oakland -360 325 0.63 0.507 0.612
Baltimore Pittsburgh -140 130 0.54 0.162 0.547
Cleveland Jacksonville -280 240 0.688 0.193 0.626
Indy Tennessee -175 155 0.62 0.502 0.601
KC Denver 195 -235 0.549 0.472 0.524
Minnesota Chicago -115 -105 0.442 0.455 0.5
Jets Miami -135 115 0.457 0.514 0.517
Philly Arizona -155 135 0.607 0.409 0.616
Carolina TB -340 280 0.743 0.626 0.635
Buffalo Atlanta -160 140 0.505 0.501 0.547
SF StL -380 315 0.68 0.524 0.607
SD Cincy 100 -120 0.571 0.439 0.595
Houston NE 255 -315 0.448 0.494 0.521
Washington Giants -115 -105 0.556 0.218 0.585
Seattle NO -230 190 0.557 0.486 0.553

Finally, the last two potentially important games are also two of the potentially higher-scoring games.  The Bengals head to San Diego; the game had originally been a pick ’em but now the Bengals are slightly favored.  Cincy would like to stay ahead of Baltimore, obviously, but would also like to get a better playoff seed if possible.  The three seed will be pretty favorable this year, and if they could manage the two seed that would be even better.  A Chargers win only gets them to .500, but they’re still in the race for that sixth seed in the AFC.  A win ties them with Baltimore, although I think they need more tiebreaker help beyond that.  Finally, on Monday night we have the Saints and Seahawks.  That should be a good game regardless, but a Saints win keeps them in the division lead and would give them (I think) the one seed in the NFC, while a Seattle win basically locks the one seed for them.  Carolina is essentially the only team threatening either one of these two in terms of record in the conference, so they would both like to keep some room between themselves and the Panthers.  And just to mention one more game, Chicago and Minnesota looks like a potential high-scorer if you like that kind of thing.  Here are the rest of the over/under picks to round out the predictions, and try to burn off some calories!

home away Over/Under Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Detroit GB 48.5 49.04 43.15 48.33
Dallas Oakland 47.5 45.61 43.21 45.36
Baltimore Pittsburgh 41 44.64 43.1 44.47
Cleveland Jacksonville 40 41.34 42.85 41.77
Indy Tennessee 45 46.06 43.38 45.83
KC Denver 49 50.81 47.3 49.64
Minnesota Chicago 50.5 50.19 45.5 48.92
Jets Miami 40.5 42.17 43.22 42.56
Philly Arizona 49 48.3 43.22 47.78
Carolina TB 41.5 42 42.95 42.87
Buffalo Atlanta 46.5 46.19 43.31 45.79
SF StL 42 46.05 43.57 46.03
SD Cincy 48.5 47.82 43.86 47.26
Houston NE 47 44.55 43.84 44.56
Washington Giants 45 46.12 43.07 45.63
Seattle NO 47.5 48.27 44.56 48.02
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