NFL Week 4 Picks

Depending on your opinion of things, either the Giants are an ok team that had a rough start, or Kirk Cousins is maybe not the QB of the future in Washington (or maybe both).  All I know is that I had Larry Donnell on the bench for one of my fantasy teams, and that was not a happy feeling (cool story, bro).  Also, I think Washington was a consensus winner for that game, so I don’t feel too bad about the models missing on it.  Particularly when Cousins had such an atrocious game; even if he’s worse than he showed in his first couple appearances, he won’t turn it over 5 times in one game very often.  Maybe the rest of the weekend’s games will be more in line with what the models think.

As covered earlier in the season, the most informative games are for teams with middling records.  Since it’s only week 4, that means wins are going to be most important for 2-1 and 1-2 teams.  That means the only “unimportant” games this week are Oakland-Miami (in London!), San Diego-Jacksonville, Pittsburgh-Tampa, and San Fran-Philly.  Those all involve teams that are either 3-0 and can maybe afford a loss or 0-3 and aren’t going anywhere anyway.  From the same perspective, I would pick Giants-Washington as a big game since it was in the division, and so I would also toss in Chicago-Green Bay and Indy-Tennessee.

home away Home Line Away Line Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Washington Giants -170 145 0.759 0.636 0.735
Chicago GB 115 -135 0.695 0.609 0.659
Houston Buffalo -155 135 0.57 0.605 0.579
Indy Tennessee -345 290 0.689 0.623 0.685
Baltimore Carolina -175 155 0.676 0.614 0.65
Jets Detroit 105 -125 0.477 0.601 0.492
Pittsburgh TB -325 270 0.872 0.716 0.843
Oakland Miami 165 -190 0.572 0.609 0.566
SD Jacksonville -800 600 0.87 0.613 0.83
Minnesota Atlanta 130 -150 0.432 0.504 0.433
SF Philly -240 200 0.549 0.608 0.534
Dallas NO 140 -160 0.508 0.584 0.505
KC NE 150 -170 0.57 0.588 0.554

Speaking of Oakland-Miami, this is a good place to remind you that the model automatically accounts for home field advantage by having a certain order of predictor entry.  All the home team stats go in and then all the away team stats.  You can contrast this with Advanced NFL Analytics, where stats go in for either team and home field is a separate predictor.  When I revamp my model I might switch to something more like that, because it’s easier to account for games like the one in London.  My models assume Oakland is actually at home, so they give the Raiders a better chance then they should have.

home away Spread Odds Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Washington Giants -3 -115 8.03 6.06 7.46
Chicago GB 2 -110 6.7 5.37 5.6
Houston Buffalo -3 -105 4.64 3.31 4.23
Indy Tennessee -7.5 -110 6.43 5.22 6.38
Baltimore Carolina -3 -120 4.33 3.44 3.96
Jets Detroit 2 -110 -0.79 0.98 -0.22
Pittsburgh TB -7.5 -100 14.96 11.29 13.33
Oakland Miami 3.5 -110 1.53 1.35 1.74
SD Jacksonville -13 -105 14.14 6.49 12.05
Minnesota Atlanta 3 -110 -0.27 0.18 -0.77
SF Philly -5 -110 2.53 1.27 2.03
Dallas NO 3 -110 0.74 1.75 0.53
KC NE 3 -100 1.84 2.36 1.82

In terms of exciting games, the over/unders are highest for Chicago-Green Bay, San Fran-Philly, and Dallas-New Orleans.  Those all make sense to me.  Luigi doesn’t have the Bears-Packers as that high, probably because of Green Bay’s offensive struggles, but if you think Rodgers gets things together then it could be a shoot-out.

home away Over/Under Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Washington Giants 45 44.98 45.39 45.04
Chicago GB 50.5 44.22 44.5 43.95
Houston Buffalo 42.5 43.88 46.01 44.28
Indy Tennessee 46 46.33 45.63 46.02
Baltimore Carolina 41 45.25 45.26 45.49
Jets Detroit 44.5 42.42 43.85 42.53
Pittsburgh TB 45 42.34 42.01 42.87
Oakland Miami 40.5 41.12 41.51 41.33
SD Jacksonville 45 46.45 47.32 45.71
Minnesota Atlanta 47 45.21 43.95 45.16
SF Philly 50.5 49.1 46.24 47.99
Dallas NO 53 47.07 44.77 46.62
KC NE 46 42.5 44.14 42.48

Instead of Simmons picks, this week I have Barnwell picks.  He didn’t have anything for Thursday night’s game, so I just gave him the same line as I have and the win out of generosity.  Assuming these actually come from Barnwell, we’ll have to see if three weeks is enough time to tell if he does better than Simmons does.  If he keeps skipping Thursdays and I keep being nice, he might be an improvement just by not picking those games.

home away Simmons Spread Simmons Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Washington Giants -3 Giants Washington Washington Washington
Chicago GB 2 GB Chicago Chicago Chicago
Houston Buffalo -3 Houston Houston Houston Houston
Indy Tennessee -8 Indy Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee
Baltimore Carolina -3 Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore
Jets Detroit 1.5 Jets Jets Jets Jets
Pittsburgh TB -7.5 TB Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pittsburgh
Oakland Miami 3.5 Miami Oakland Oakland Oakland
SD Jacksonville -13 Jacksonville SD Jacksonville Jacksonville
Minnesota Atlanta 3 Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota
SF Philly -5 SF Philly Philly Philly
Dallas NO 3 NO Dallas Dallas Dallas
KC NE 3 NE KC KC KC

Finally, we have the SuperContest picks, or my top-five for each model.  Luigi is going with Chicago +1.5, Pittsburgh -7.5 (the Carolina game was impressive for the Steelers, and Tampa has not been impressive), Oakland +4 (because of home field), Kansas City +3.5, and Washington -3.5 (already a loss).  Next up to replace the Raiders would be Dallas +3.  Yoshi 2 has the same picks.  Yoshi 1 is going with Chicago, Kansas City, Jacksonville +12.5, Oakland, and Pittsburgh.  The Raiders swap would be Dallas.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s