NFL Week 4 Results

It was a rough week for the models; looking at all games, Luigi went for a perfect split on the 13 game slate, 6-6-1.  I’m not quite at Patriots-levels of panic, but it might get there soon.  Let’s do the belated round-up.

Bill Barnwell is filling in for the suspended Bill Simmons, but I’ll just be combining their results.  Simmons came in with a 25-23 record, which isn’t setting the world on fire but is still sadly better than the models so far.  Barnwell was right on the Giants, Packers, Texans, Colts, Ravens, Bucs, and Dolphins to pretty much sweep the early games.  After that he only got the Vikings and a push on the 49ers to come back to earth.  Still, that’s 8-4-1.  Maybe Simmons should just turn the column over to him.  I partially kid; there’s no way to tell this wasn’t just a lucky week.  We won’t know if Barnwell is lucky or not even if he picks the next month because there just aren’t enough games.  That puts their record up to 33-27-1.

Against the Bills’ lines, Luigi went 6-6-1 for a total record of 30-30-1, Yoshi 1 went 5-7-1 for a total record of 25-35-1, and Yoshi 2 also went 5-7-1 for a total record of 27-33-1.

Using my more typical spreads (from SBR and ignoring close calls), Luigi was still 6-6-1 because he picked every game this week.  That gives him a total record of 21-17-2.  Yoshi 1 was a terrible 3-7-1 for a total of 15-21-2, and Yoshi 2 was a not-much-better 4-7-1 for a total of 18-19-2.  As you would guess, even having a consensus was not helpful this week.  The models were 3-6-1 in the games they agreed on (Luigi was right on every game they skipped), for a total of 11-13-2.

As you may have guessed, the SuperContest picks did not go very well either.  In fact, despite breaking even overall, Luigi bombed out on his top picks and hit the ‘less confident’ ones.  If I could switch Dallas for Oakland, because the model doesn’t account for the game being in London, Luigi would have gone 2-3.  But I’m a stickler, so 1-4 it is (only getting Kansas City correct).  That puts Luigi at 8-12.  Yoshi 2 had the same picks and Yoshi 2 swapped a Washington loss for a Jacksonville loss, so they also went 1-4.  So Yoshi 1 stands at 11-9 and Yoshi 2 is 10-10.  Picking around .500 is not going to win any SuperContests, guys.

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