NFL Week 6 Picks

As promised, the Thursday night game went against me.  But at least it was a close one this time, with the Texans putting up a good fight in a game they could have given up on after the first quarter.

Turning to the Lions, the line against the Vikings has been flying around.  Detroit was originally favored by a field goal, but with Megatron looking like a no-go and Bridgewater back for Minnesota, it’s flipped all the way to Vikings -2.  I think this is interesting to the extent that even with Johnson only making one catch last week, the Lions still would have won if they had a kicker capable of making field goals in a dome.  Maybe more relevant, Stafford still averaged 7.5 yards per dropback.  The passing game did ok.  On the other hand, if Bridgewater tweaks his ankle again, the Vikings are back to relying on Christian Ponder.  In case you’ve forgotten, Ponder has a career completion percentage of 59.8%, about as many touchdowns as interceptions, 6.3 yards per dropback, and a 76 QB rating.  But let’s see what the models think; they don’t even take injuries into account.

The Tennessee-Jacksonville line is up in the air, I assume since there’s uncertainty in who will play QB for the Titans.  Some places have Tennessee -4, some -6, and some no number at all.  The models have Tennessee by about 6-7, so this could be a spot where Locker vs. Whitehurst vs. trying out the rookie could be important.

home away Home Line Away Line Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Houston Indy 120 -140 0.534 0.541 0.541
Atlanta Chicago -160 150 0.692 0.616 0.648
Tennessee Jacksonville -220 180 0.707 0.617 0.651
TB Baltimore 160 -185 0.309 0.616 0.4
Jets Denver 355 -450 0.3 0.616 0.392
Minnesota Detroit -135 115 0.508 0.623 0.536
Buffalo NE 120 -140 0.59 0.613 0.571
Cincy Carolina -280 235 0.789 0.626 0.713
Cleveland Pittsburgh -130 110 0.469 0.617 0.548
Miami GB 130 -150 0.452 0.551 0.5
Oakland SD 260 -310 0.273 0.601 0.378
Seattle Dallas -370 300 0.563 0.622 0.574
Arizona Washington -175 155 0.616 0.629 0.606
Philly Giants -140 130 0.631 0.635 0.585
StL SF 155 -175 0.411 0.616 0.491

There are a few high-scoring games for the week.  One was Colts-Texans, which certainly fit the bill.  The leader, surprisingly, is Browns-Steelers.  You don’t typically think of AFC North games as potential shoot-outs, but the points for and points against for both teams are right around average, which could be the sweet spot that leads to a lot of points.  Also, both teams are above average in yards per play, with Pittsburgh surprisingly high at 5th in the league.  The other entertaining games for the week are Atlanta-Chicago and Philly-Giants.

home away Over/Under Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Houston Indy 46.5 48.37 45.88 47.58
Atlanta Chicago 54.5 48.77 46.16 47.25
Tennessee Jacksonville 43 44.03 41.3 43.94
TB Baltimore 43.5 45.25 46.43 45.31
Jets Denver 48 45.94 45.95 45.36
Minnesota Detroit 43 43.21 44.29 43.45
Buffalo NE 44.5 43.63 44.69 43.85
Cincy Carolina 43.5 47.65 43.82 46.73
Cleveland Pittsburgh 47 49.47 47.69 48.14
Miami GB 49 46.84 45.72 45.87
Oakland SD 43.5 44.04 44.54 44.03
Seattle Dallas 47 46.87 46.33 46.66
Arizona Washington 45.5 47.88 42.5 46.81
Philly Giants 50.5 48.55 46.75 47.23
StL SF 44 46.71 45.37 45.72

It’s getting further into the season, and teams floating around average (3-2, 2-3, 2-2 for the teams who’ve had a bye) need to win to get on the good side of the playoff ledger.  Important games on that front are Buffalo-Pats, Miami-Packers, Pittsburgh-Cleveland, Detroit-Minnesota, and Chicago-Atlanta.

home away Spread Odds Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Houston Indy 2.5 -110 1.95 2.59 1.92
Atlanta Chicago -3 -115 7.48 3.39 6.91
Tennessee Jacksonville -4 -110 7.09 5.75 6.34
TB Baltimore 3.5 -115 -5 2.64 -4.38
Jets Denver 9.5 -110 -5.59 3 -4.74
Minnesota Detroit -2 -115 0.13 3.3 0.56
Buffalo NE 2.5 -110 3.03 4.04 2.94
Cincy Carolina -7 -105 10.22 4.02 9.41
Cleveland Pittsburgh 0 -110 1.06 3.15 1.79
Miami GB 3 -125 -2.41 2.49 -1.47
Oakland SD 7 -110 -7 2.15 -5.96
Seattle Dallas -8 -110 2.02 3.29 2.37
Arizona Washington -3.5 -110 3.94 4.1 3.95
Philly Giants -2.5 -115 2.2 3.24 2.2
StL SF 3 110 -2.04 3.04 -1.09

Here are Bill Barnwell’s picks.  He came back to earth after a great first week; hopefully that trend continues.

home away Simmons Spread Simmons Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Houston Indy 2 Indy Houston Houston Houston
Atlanta Chicago -3 Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta
Tennessee Jacksonville -6 Jacksonville Tennessee Jacksonville Tennessee
TB Baltimore 3 Baltimore Baltimore TB Baltimore
Jets Denver 9.5 Jets Jets Jets Jets
Minnesota Detroit -2 Minnesota Detroit Minnesota Detroit
Buffalo NE 3 NE Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo
Cincy Carolina -6.5 Cincy Cincy Carolina Cincy
Cleveland Pittsburgh -1.5 Cleveland Pittsburgh Cleveland Cleveland
Miami GB 3 GB Miami Miami Miami
Oakland SD 7 SD SD Oakland Oakland
Seattle Dallas -8.5 Seattle Dallas Dallas Dallas
Arizona Washington -2.5 Washington Arizona Arizona Arizona
Philly Giants -3 Giants Giants Philly Giants
StL SF 3.5 SF StL StL StL

And let’s wrap up with the SuperContest picks.  The models all need a good week, as these picks have not been doing well.  Luigi is going to go with Buffalo +3 and Dallas +8 as far and away his top picks, followed by Houston +3 (oops), Atlanta -3.5, and Bengals -7.  Yoshi 2 is swapping in Jets +8.5 for the Bengals.  And Yoshi 1 is going with the Jets, Oakland +7, St. Louis +3.5, Miami +3.5, and Buffalo +3.  Basically every home underdog (Houston and Minnesota +1.5 were next on the list).  We’ll see if it’s a home dog kind of week.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s