Tonight’s game should be relatively straightforward. The Patriots are the better team, especially given their last few outings. They’re at home. They started favored by a touchdown and the line has moved closer to 10. All three models have them as about a touchdown favorite, so they would lean towards taking the Jets to cover. But given their record on picking games so far this year, it might be better to take the Pats. So let’s just look at the power rankings.
Our top team this week is San Diego (as always, open the chart below in a new window to embiggen).
Despite a shaky win over the Raiders, the Chargers are still 5-1 and owners of the best point differential in football. Unlike, say, the Eagles, those points have come through the offense and not on kick or turnover returns, which tend to be fluky. That being said, the Eagles are still doing well at #5. The bottom of the list is still pretty much the same, being held down by Oakland, the Jets, Tampa, and Jacksonville. To write a sentence I never thought I would, the Lions appear to have the best defense in football. However, they are ranked middle of the pack because their offense has fallen off a cliff. Winning is better than losing though. In terms of team quality, the best game this week might be Colts-Bengals, and while Denver-San Fran has some appeal the 49ers have not been super-great this year. With the game being in Denver, it isn’t surprising that the Broncos are touchdown favorites.