I was traveling for most of the week, so let’s update the model results real quick before I fall too far behind. Or forget entirely, since I have no idea what happened this past weekend while I was driving.
I’ll start off with Bill Barnwell/Simmons, who gets free Thursday picks by not making them. It was a bad week for everyone though. Bill went 6-8-1 (Miami-Green Bay was a push) to send his total to 47-42-2. Luigi and Yoshi 2 both went a poor 4-10-1, putting their records at 43-46-2 and 39-50-2. Yoshi 1 did a bit better and went 7-7-1 for a 41-48-2 record. So these picks have not been going well.
Part of that is due to ‘backdoor covers’ on last-minute pick-sixes. The Jets were on their way to covering when the Broncos returned a pick for a touchdown with 15 seconds left. Similarly the Rams didn’t have a cover in hand, but had the ball with a chance to tie before giving up a pick-six with 53 seconds left. So things could have been a little better, although still not great.
With that in mind, it isn’t surprising to see that the non-Bill picks also didn’t go well. Luigi was 4-5-1 for a total record of 30-28-4; you can see that slightly different lines and some selectivity go a long way. Yoshi 1 was 4-7-1 for a total of 25-33-4. Yoshi 2 was 3-10-1 for a total of 26-36-4. The consensus picks also did poorly at 2-4 for a total record of 16-21-3.
Finally we have the SuperContest. Luigi went 1-4, as appears to be his preference this year, for an overall record of 10-20. The fringe for making the money tends to be 50 points, so Luigi needs 40 points in the remaining 11 weeks, or basically 4-1 records every week. That doesn’t look too likely. Yoshi 2 was also 1-4 for a total of 12-18. Yoshi 1 also went 1-4 (the second straight week that all three models went 1-4 despite picking some different games) for a total of 13-17. From just panning through the current standings it looks like 17 or 18 is about average right now, so the models aren’t far from that standard. The leader has 26 correct picks though, and that’s going to be hard to catch up to.