NFL Week 11 Picks

The picks will be short and sweet this week as I’m in Vegas debating how much to trust the models.  The answer looks like “probably not much”, but we’ll see.


The big game for me this weekend, and at least as far as the NFC playoff picture goes, is Detroit-Arizona.  While they would have the two byes if the season ended today, the models are relatively unimpressed with what they’ve done this year.  Detroit has won a number of close games; while a welcome change from recent years, good teams typically win more comfortably.  The Cardinals have been getting by on a fairly easy schedule (St. Louis, Oakland, Washington, the apparently iffy 49ers, the Giants, and the mediocre Chargers) and a more or less unsustainable interception differential (they have a 0.9% interception rate while their defense has a 4.0% interception rate, which is like playing the Jaguars every week).

home away Home Line Away Line Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Miami Buffalo -210 180 0.664 0.585 0.625
Chicago Minnesota -150 130 0.497 0.442 0.526
Cleveland Houston -175 155 0.625 0.585 0.62
GB Philly -240 200 0.628 0.587 0.613
KC Seattle -130 110 0.564 0.575 0.567
Carolina Atlanta 105 -125 0.453 0.581 0.493
NO Cincy -340 280 0.613 0.588 0.608
Washington TB -350 290 0.692 0.677 0.671
StL Denver 385 -460 0.332 0.581 0.397
Giants SF 170 -195 0.492 0.528 0.525
Indy NE -160 135 0.671 0.576 0.614
SD Oakland -600 460 0.797 0.616 0.729
Arizona Detroit -120 100 0.626 0.772 0.613
Tennessee Pittsburgh 215 -260 0.422 0.257 0.466

The big for pretty much everyone else is probably Colts-Patriots, which will be a big part of the AFC playoff picture. The game is in Indianapolis, which is helpful for the Colts, but I could see this going either way. It should also be a pretty entertaining game, as the over/under is a ridiculously high 57.5 points. Packers-Eagles is also up at 55, and Rams-Broncos is at 51 but you can imagine that most of that will presumably come from Denver.

home away Spread Odds Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Miami Buffalo -4 -110 5.01 6.12 4.69
Chicago Minnesota -3 -105 -0.28 -0.28 0.25
Cleveland Houston -3.5 -105 4.54 2.67 4.51
GB Philly -5.5 -110 3.96 2.48 4.16
KC Seattle -2 -110 2.47 1.89 2.64
Carolina Atlanta 1 -105 -1.1 -2.9 -0.57
NO Cincy -7.5 -105 3.6 0.52 3.76
Washington TB -7.5 -105 6.94 5.35 6.76
StL Denver 9.5 -110 -4.91 -13.17 -4
Giants SF 4 -115 -0.42 -2.92 0.25
Indy NE -3 -110 5.42 1.72 4.82
SD Oakland -10.5 -105 10.85 6.78 9.67
Arizona Detroit 0 -110 3.37 3.03 3.54
Tennessee Pittsburgh 6 -105 -0.67 -5.42 -0.51

Other important games for the playoffs: Chiefs-Seahawks and Saints-Bengals. Only one of these games is expected to be closer, however. New Orleans, despite having the worse record, is a big favorite over Cincinnati. The models have it a little bit closer, but still like the Saints.

home away Over/Under Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Miami Buffalo 41 44.45 43.18 44.29
Chicago Minnesota 46 44.04 43.18 44.14
Cleveland Houston 40.5 46.08 43.43 45.98
GB Philly 55 50.52 43.65 48.9
KC Seattle 42 45.97 43.33 45.72
Carolina Atlanta 47 46.42 43.31 45.67
NO Cincy 51 47.94 43.84 47.32
Washington TB 45.5 46.11 43.38 45.47
StL Denver 51 47.06 43.18 46.04
Giants SF 44.5 47.92 43.37 47.1
Indy NE 57.5 51.28 43.83 49.67
SD Oakland 44.5 44.23 43.4 44.12
Arizona Detroit 41 44.87 43.14 44.6
Tennessee Pittsburgh 46.5 46.35 43.12 45.81

We have Bill Simmons’ picks, as usual. I need to make up ground here.  So it looks like I’m really pulling for covers by the Bengals, Giants, and Titans.

home away Simmons Spread Simmons Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Miami Buffalo -5.5 Miami Buffalo Miami Buffalo
Chicago Minnesota -3 Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota
Cleveland Houston -3.5 Houston Cleveland Houston Cleveland
GB Philly -6.5 Philly Philly Philly Philly
KC Seattle -2 KC KC Seattle KC
Carolina Atlanta 1 Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Carolina
NO Cincy -7.5 NO Cincy Cincy Cincy
Washington TB -7.5 TB TB TB TB
StL Denver 10.5 Denver StL Denver StL
Giants SF 4.5 SF Giants Giants Giants
Indy NE -2.5 NE Indy NE Indy
SD Oakland -10.5 Oakland SD Oakland Oakland
Arizona Detroit -1 Arizona Arizona Arizona Arizona
Tennessee Pittsburgh 6.5 Pittsburgh Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee

And finally we have the SuperContest picks, which could also stand to improve. Luigi is going with Tennessee +6, Rams +9.5, Bengals +7, Minnesota +3, and Atlanta +2, narrowly excluding Giants +3.5. Yoshi 2 is putting the Giants in instead of Atlanta. Yoshi 1 is going with the Bengals, Atlanta, Eagles +6, Minnesota, and Oakland +10.

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