Thanksgiving Day Picks

Thanks to my dad, I’ll get to be at the Lions game on Thursday (thanks dad!).  Unfortunately, that means they’re almost certainly doomed to a terrible upset.  Detroit is favored by a touchdown over the Bears; it looks like the line has moved up there from about 5.5.  The models think that 4-5 is more appropriate, so they’re leaning towards a Chicago cover.  I would honestly be ok with that as long as the Lions win, but I’ll take a touchdown win too.

In the other games, Dallas is hosting the Eagles in a big game for the NFC East and NFC in general.  One of these two is winning the division and the other is in the wild card chase.  The Cowboys are hosting, as is Thanksgiving tradition, so they’re getting the home field advantage line of -3.  The models happen to have this game at more like 4-5 too, so they’re leaning towards a Cowboys cover.  We’ll see if Sanchez can keep riding the talent around him to decent performances.

And finally we have the 49ers and Seahawks.  They’re in a similar boat in terms of being in the wild card chase and fairly evenly matched, but Seattle has come on more strongly while the 49ers have mostly still just been hanging on.  But the game is in San Fran, so they are slight favorites (or pick ’em some places).  The models also see it as a pretty even game, but subjectively I feel like you have to lean towards Seattle.  Either way, the winner is going to be in better position to try to catch the Cardinals, and will be tied with the loser of Cowboys/Eagles.  So make sure you enjoy the playoff implications along with your turkey!

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