After getting the Cardinals’ pick right on Thursday, things took a turn for the worse with the model picks. Fortunately, the Lions’ victory has them limping toward the playoffs with somewhat surprising fortitude. I was happy that the models were right about the Vikings’ cover but Detroit won anyway. Let’s get through the rest of the results, even if there might not be too many correct picks after those two.
Bill Simmons’s lines resulted in two pushes: Colts-Texans and Seahawks-49ers. So Bill went 8-6-2 for a season record of 117-102-5. The models, as has been typical this year, had the worse of it. Luigi went 5-9-2 for an overall record of 103-116-5, Yoshi 1 went 6-8-2 for a total of 99-120-5, and Yoshi 2 went 5-9-2 for an overall record of 97-122-5. With two weeks to go, I think Bill has this wrapped up. I’ll have to see if I can beat him in the playoffs.
Using the SBR lines, Luigi went 4-9-1 for an overall record of 79-82-6. This is a good time to remind people of (or point out for newer readers) two things. First, it matters where you get your lines. I’m not sure where Bill gets his; I look at the range across the SBR website and pick what I think is most common/representative. Even small differences lead to big changes in overall performance; this week it’s worse for Luigi with SBR because he lost the Seattle push when I had a line of -9.5 instead of 10. Second, cutting out some close calls matters. Assume that you bet $110 to win $100 on every game. With Bill’s lines, picking every game, Luigi has averaged a loss of $8.36 per game. With the SBR lines, which previous years have told me are tougher than Bill’s lines, but ignoring some games Luigi has averaged a loss of only $6.71 per game. That’s a big difference in the right direction against harder lines, even if the overall performance has been bad.
Wrapping up the SBR part, Yoshi 1 went 5-9-1 for a season record of 71-92-6 and Yoshi 2 went 4-10-1 for an overall record of 71-93-6. The consensus picks went 4-8-1 for a total record of 47-59-5.
Luigi’s SuperContest picks were 1-3-1 (got San Fran back as a push) for an overall record of 33-41-1. Yoshi 1 went 2-2-1 for a total of 32-41-2, and Yoshi 2 went 1-3-1 with the same picks as Luigi for a total of 36-38-1.