Tonight’s game between two 2-12 teams has to have a winner (ignoring the unlikely event of a tie), but even that team will lose. That’s because winning will pretty much put that team out of the running for the number one draft pick this offseason. Truth be told, the Tampa Bucs have the inside track on that anyway: they’re also 2-12, don’t have to play another 2-12 team, and have two very losable games left against Green Bay and New Orleans. If Tennessee loses, they’ll also need to avoid a win against the Colts in week 17: doable, but Indy might not have anything to play for. If Jacksonville loses, they’ll try to lose again to Houston; depending on how the other games go this weekend, they might be eliminated from the playoffs and not trying too hard either. Oakland is also in the running at 2-12; they have the Bills and Broncos left on the schedule. But at least according to 538, the Bucs have the best chance of coming out on top. So to speak.
As for tonight’s game, Jacksonville is getting a 4 point edge from SBR, meaning they are at home and slightly better than that Titans. The models disagree; they think the Titans are better but home field gives the Jaguars a tiny edge. So they’re going with the cover. I guess if you’re a Tennessee fan, a loss but cover would be a pretty decent outcome.