NFL Week 16 Predictions

After Thursday’s “who drafts first?” game, I thought we were done with playoff-irrelevant games.  Unfortunately, that isn’t quite true.  We still have Miami-Minnesota, Oakland-Buffalo, and Rams-Giants on the docket.  Yes, I know there are some convoluted ways that Buffalo or Miami could make it, but they aren’t going to.  Still, 12 out of 16 games having some manner of playoff implication is pretty good.  I’m just going to spend the day crossing my fingers that Jimmy Clausen doesn’t decide to have his breakout game.

There are two games on Saturday, which is part of why this is going up a little early.  The Eagles go to Washington to try to keep their playoff hopes alive, which they probably will since they’re touchdown favorites despite being on the road.  The models think the game will be closer, but I bet Philly takes it comfortably.  More interestingly, San Fran and San Diego play for not much of a good reason. San Diego is technically hanging around, but they have two road games left against decent teams. They can make it with even one win, but they don’t have much of a margin of error.

home away Over/Under Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Jacksonville Tennessee 39 42.76 42.31 42.85
SF SD 40.5 44.25 44.15 44.44
Washington Philly 50.5 47.12 44.5 46.17
Miami Minnesota 42 43.02 42.12 43.39
Houston Baltimore 42 46.73 45.29 46.43
Chicago Detroit 44 44.94 45.02 44.75
Carolina Cleveland 41 44.48 43.69 44.24
NO Atlanta 56 50.27 47.41 48.97
TB GB 49 47.58 44.7 46.59
Pittsburgh KC 47 47.05 45.11 46.53
Jets NE 46.5 46.41 44.53 45.6
StL Giants 43.5 43.15 42.66 43.29
Oakland Buffalo 40 43.37 43.31 43.32
Dallas Indy 55 49.9 46.55 48.56
Arizona Seattle 36.5 44.88 44.52 44.79
Cincy Denver 47.5 46.94 44.71 46.46

Somewhat sadly given the importance of the games, a fair number are predicted to be one-sided. According to SBR, 9 games have a favorite of 7 points or more. The leader on that front is Green Bay, favored by as much as 13 some places even though they’re on the road. Granted, Tampa Bay is terrible and it’s unlikely the Packers offense is that bad two weeks in a row. Next up is New England despite traveling to the Jets. This game doesn’t even get a “throw out the records when these two meet”. You can throw out the records. The Pats will win.

home away Home Line Away Line Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Jacksonville Tennessee -210 175 0.508 0.518 0.536
SF SD -120 -100 0.498 0.546 0.525
Washington Philly 290 -320 0.457 0.391 0.502
Miami Minnesota 280 235 0.567 0.532 0.564
Houston Baltimore 190 -230 0.489 0.52 0.512
Chicago Detroit 315 -395 0.455 0.359 0.488
Carolina Cleveland -210 180 0.475 0.522 0.526
NO Atlanta -270 230 0.546 0.564 0.572
TB GB 475 -650 0.339 0.501 0.384
Pittsburgh KC -160 135 0.615 0.639 0.606
Jets NE 430 -560 0.268 0.236 0.35
StL Giants -265 225 0.63 0.501 0.588
Oakland Buffalo 235 -275 0.403 0.495 0.454
Dallas Indy -185 160 0.564 0.529 0.57
Arizona Seattle 290 -350 0.505 0.536 0.536
Cincy Denver 145 -170 0.45 0.515 0.486

Going back to a theme earlier in the year, home underdogs were supposed to be the way to go for covers this season.  This week there are a decent number, with half the games having a home dog.  Perhaps unfortunately, only two of those eight have anything to play for: Arizona and Cincinnati.  So this may not be the week where you see a bunch of covers turn up.

home away Spread Odds Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Jacksonville Tennessee -4 -115 0.89 0.37 1.11
SF SD -1 -115 -0.19 2.86 0.27
Washington Philly 7.5 -115 -1.32 -1.16 -0.43
Miami Minnesota -6.5 -105 1.76 1.43 1.9
Houston Baltimore 5 -110 0.69 -0.12 0.85
Chicago Detroit 8.5 -110 -0.83 -6.8 -0.55
Carolina Cleveland -4 -115 -1.29 -0.66 -0.36
NO Atlanta -6.5 -110 1.72 4.94 2.24
TB GB 12 -105 -3.77 -6.42 -3.46
Pittsburgh KC -3 -105 4.67 4.53 4.55
Jets NE 10.5 -110 -7.54 -6.94 -6.19
StL Giants -6.5 -110 3.85 -0.28 3.36
Oakland Buffalo 7 -115 -3.04 -1.41 -2.26
Dallas Indy -3.5 -105 2.4 4.01 2.67
Arizona Seattle 7.5 -110 1.02 5.81 1.43
Cincy Denver 3 -100 -0.81 -0.22 -0.35

Bill Simmons’ picks are here.  We’re really just playing out the string on this one – Bill has me pretty soundly beat this year.  Thursday’s game didn’t help.  We’ll see how the playoffs go.

home away Simmons Spread Simmons Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Jacksonville Tennessee -4 Jacksonville Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee
SF SD -1 SD SD SF SD
Washington Philly 8 Philly Washington Washington Washington
Miami Minnesota -6 Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota
Houston Baltimore 6 Baltimore Houston Houston Houston
Chicago Detroit 9.5 Detroit Chicago Chicago Chicago
Carolina Cleveland -4 Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland
NO Atlanta -6.5 Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta
TB GB 12 GB TB TB TB
Pittsburgh KC -3 Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pittsburgh
Jets NE 10.5 NE Jets Jets Jets
StL Giants -6.5 Giants Giants Giants Giants
Oakland Buffalo 7 Oakland Oakland Oakland Oakland
Dallas Indy -3.5 Indy Indy Dallas Indy
Arizona Seattle 9 Seattle Arizona Arizona Arizona
Cincy Denver 3.5 Denver Cincy Cincy Cincy

Luigi’s SuperContest picks are Arizona +8, Tampa +10.5, Houston +5.5, Washington +7.5, and Chicago +6.5. I’m not a big fan of picks relying on third string QBs, but the model doesn’t know any better. Yoshi 1 is going with Atlanta +6.5, Washington, Minnesota +6.5, Houston, and the Giants +4.5. Yoshi 2 is going with Arizona, Tampa, Washington, Houston, and Chicago (Luigi’s picks).

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