Just one more slate of games to go in the 2014 season. It took a long time, but the models finally had a really solid week. I’ll also give a sneak peak on how they think the playoff field will look, although I’ll do the usual full set of predictions closer to Sunday.
Getting close to wrapping up the Simmons competition, Bill went 9-6-1 for a season total of 126-108-6. 9-6-1 is usually a pretty good week, but all three of the models went 11-4-1 in a solid case of too little too late. That gives Luigi a total of 114-120-6, Yoshi 1 a total of 110-124-6, and Yoshi 2 a total of 108-126-6. If Luigi manages to go 11-5 next week, it would make it to .500 (125-125-6) for the season.
Against my usual SBR lines, Luigi picked every game and went that same 11-4-1 for a season total of 90-86-7 in a last-gasp attempt to end up on the plus side of the ledger. For that to happen, it’ll basically need that 11-5 record again next week. Yoshi 1 went 10-4-1 for a total of 81-96-7 and Yoshi 2 went 10-3-1 for a total of 81-96-7. Neither of them will end up in the black. The consensus picks went 10-3-1 for a total of 57-63-6. If the lines for week 17 stay where they are now, the consensus picks would need to go 12-1 (or 13-0) to end up in the black.
Luigi’s SuperContest picks went 3-2 for an overall record of 36-43-1. Yoshi 2 had the same picks and stands at 39-40-1. Yoshi 1 went a belated 5-0 for an overall record of 37-41-2.
As for the playoff preview, the models agree on the winner of each game except for three, and those three don’t change the playoff results at all. So the models expect the AFC to have New England and Denver with byes while Baltimore travels to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati travels to Indianapolis. The Pats and Colts spots are locks, but the rest could move around. In the NFC, Seattle and Green Bay will get byes while Detroit travels to Dallas and Arizona travels to Atlanta. Of course, if I had my druthers the Lions would have a bye. But I’ll be happy enough if they put up a good fight next weekend and don’t get any injuries or anything before the playoffs.