The Lions game just ended, so it’s still a little tender. But here’s how the model predictions did for the wild card round.
Ignoring how close the prediction was to the line, Luigi and Yoshi 2 went 3-1, only missing the Panthers’ cover. Yoshi 1 went 1-3, only getting the Lions’ cover. But since a couple lines were close to the predictions, the ‘pickable’ records were 1-1 for everybody. The only consensus play was the Cardinals, which was a loss. The only model to come out ahead on 1-1 was Luigi, because Pittsburgh went off at -3 -125. When Baltimore covered that was worth just over 2 to 1, barely covering the incorrect Arizona pick. But basically it was a weak first round.
I’ll wait and see what the lines are for next week, but typically the home team is a fairly decent favorite because they’re the best teams and they all just had a bye. I would guess that Baltimore gets some preference as a feisty underdog, and perhaps Dallas against Green Bay. But as a wild guess, without having run the models, I’ll say that the lines will be something like Seattle -7, Packers -4, Pats -4, and Broncos -5. With the Lions having been knocked out, I’m going to fall back on rooting for Michigan man Tom Brady and I guess the Panthers in the NFC.