Week 2 Model Results

As always, just go back a post for the predictions (here are week 2’s).  In the past my review posts have been mammoth things with all the different predictions and models to track.  I’m going to try to pare it down a bit to the most relevant stuff: spread picks, SuperContest picks, and Simmons picks. Continue reading

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Predicting Week 2: The Models Return

With week 1 and its complete lack of information out of the way, we’re on to week 2.  There isn’t a lot of information about each team per se, but there’s some, and that means I can start running my models.  If you need a refresher, click on that link in the banner.  But in short: Luigi is my workhorse regression model while Yoshi 1 and Yoshi 2 are young upstarts trying to prove that regularized regression can do better.  Each are actually three models (one for picking a winner, one for picking the point difference, and one for picking the total points), but I put them under one name because they use the same predictors and the same method.  I always feel a little uncomfortable running them this early, since it feels like the numbers from one game can’t be that great, but I haven’t seen a big fall-off compared to later weeks so far.  So off we go! Continue reading

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InterSkeption: Sport Skeptic Skeptical about Skeptical Sports

Ben Morris at 538 (and formerly at Skeptical Sports) had an article yesterday looking at a few topics in the world of football.  I thought two of them could use a little work, so this is me complaining.  The first has to do with how much a win or loss at different points of the season affects a team’s playoff chances and the second is the bit on rookie quarterbacks. Continue reading

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Baltimore – Pittsburgh and 29 Other Teams Worse Than the Lions

This is probably the easiest first week of the season I’ve had in a little while; I get my data from Yahoo and the past few years they’ve changed their website layout enough that I have to do a fair amount of work to get ready to pull the numbers after the first set of games.  This year, just one tiny change.  And as if that wasn’t good enough news, the Lions won and did so in pretty convincing fashion.  Let’s take a quick look at tonight’s Thursday Night game and celebrate the Lions a little. Continue reading

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Wrapping up NFL Week 1: Guessing in the Dark

As I say every year, picking games in week 1 is tough.  Honestly, it’s tough all year, but particularly early in the season when you have no idea what all the roster changes are going to do and little data to support any particular guesses.  But I go ahead and try anyway, because you can probably count on some carry-over from last season, right?  Here’s a quick rundown of the week 1 picks. Continue reading

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The NFL (and the blog) is back

Hey everyone!  After a busy summer, I have made my way back from the desert in time for the return of the NFL tomorrow night.  As usual, my first order of business is to blithely act like I can predict who will win the week 1 games based on team performance from last year.  Continue reading

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Super Bowl Prediction

By now you’ve had about all the Super Bowl coverage you can probably stand.  Some of what I read included Bill Simmons’ pick (as always), Bill Barnwell’s breakdown and prediction, and a summary of previous offense-defense Super Bowls.  So I’m not going to pile on much and instead just add a couple of my reactions along with the pick. Continue reading

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