The storylines from early in the season are starting to fall apart a bit. The Patriots started poorly, but now sit at 5-2 (even though they still haven’t been inspiring their old confidence). The Bengals have failed to win three weeks in a row after a great start. The Saints are in bad shape. Seattle is in bad shape. Green Bay is starting to round into form, but they can’t shake the Lions. The Cowboys looks amazing. And most relevant to the power rankings, the Chargers lost for the second time. That’s enough to knock them out of the number 1 spot, and after a convincing win over the 49ers, the Broncos have taken over. Continue reading
The models had a glowing start to the week. They all got the Jets to cover against the Pats, and the next three games that the models agreed on (according to the schedule released before the season began) were all hits too: Tennessee, St. Louis, and Minnesota to cover. Unfortunately, it was downhill from there. Let’s see how the carnage went. Continue reading
The predictions this week start off on a high note, as the Jets managed to keep the game close against the Patriots for a cover. The models though the Pats were favorites by about the early line of a touchdown, but as the number moved closer to 10 the Jets became more of a preference. The models sort of took a week off for the week 3 Falcons-Bucs Thursday night game, where they similarly had Atlanta as the 6 point favorite that the line claimed, but otherwise have gotten every other Thursday night game this year wrong. So with one correct pick in the bag, let’s get to the rest of the weekend. Continue reading
Tonight’s game should be relatively straightforward. The Patriots are the better team, especially given their last few outings. They’re at home. They started favored by a touchdown and the line has moved closer to 10. All three models have them as about a touchdown favorite, so they would lean towards taking the Jets to cover. But given their record on picking games so far this year, it might be better to take the Pats. So let’s just look at the power rankings. Continue reading
I was traveling for most of the week, so let’s update the model results real quick before I fall too far behind. Or forget entirely, since I have no idea what happened this past weekend while I was driving. Continue reading
As promised, the Thursday night game went against me. But at least it was a close one this time, with the Texans putting up a good fight in a game they could have given up on after the first quarter.
Turning to the Lions, the line against the Vikings has been flying around. Detroit was originally favored by a field goal, but with Megatron looking like a no-go and Bridgewater back for Minnesota, it’s flipped all the way to Vikings -2. I think this is interesting to the extent that even with Johnson only making one catch last week, the Lions still would have won if they had a kicker capable of making field goals in a dome. Maybe more relevant, Stafford still averaged 7.5 yards per dropback. The passing game did ok. On the other hand, if Bridgewater tweaks his ankle again, the Vikings are back to relying on Christian Ponder. In case you’ve forgotten, Ponder has a career completion percentage of 59.8%, about as many touchdowns as interceptions, 6.3 yards per dropback, and a 76 QB rating. But let’s see what the models think; they don’t even take injuries into account. Continue reading
As noted last post, basically every Thursday night game I’ve broken down so far this season has gone the wrong way. Is one team better on defense? They give up at least 30. Is one team better at passing? They can barely move the ball. So I expect the same thing to happen tonight. Continue reading