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Author Archives: Alex
2014 Super Bowl Prediction
In less than 24 hours, we’ll have a Super Bowl between two of the best and most evenly-matched teams in NFL history. I think the general consensus is that the main determination will be if the Patriots can stop Marshawn … Continue reading
A Quick, Bayesian Note on Deflate-Gate
Neil Paine wrote an article rounding up a bunch of the posts on the issue of if the Patriots are or have ever been Communists let the air out of their footballs. I’m glad he did, because I was thinking … Continue reading
NFL Conference Championship Results
With there being basically a dead weekend before the Super Bowl (does anyone really watch or care about the Pro Bowl?), I put the conference title games on the backburner until now. As predicted by essentially everyone, the two favorites … Continue reading
NFL Conference Championship Predictions
Tomorrow we get two games featuring probably the three consensus best teams in the league this season, and the Colts. If we were back in September, you’d probably have the Broncos instead, but Indy handled that directly. You might have … Continue reading
NFL Divisional Round Results
Well, we avoided having an exact repeat of last year’s conference title games. Instead we only have two repeat teams. Seattle has made it again but will face the Packers instead of the 49ers, and the Patriots are back but … Continue reading
NFL Divisonal Round Predictions
Since the Lions were knocked out while simultaneously demonstrating that the officiating system is broken while the NFL does nothing to fix it, it’s unclear why there are still playoff games. After all, I just wanted to watch the Lions. … Continue reading
NFL Wild Card Results
The Lions game just ended, so it’s still a little tender. But here’s how the model predictions did for the wild card round.
Using Numbers to Say What You Want
I’ve been more or less enjoying the articles over at 538, and not just the sports ones. I also started a new job as a researcher at the FAA back in the fall, so it jumped out at me when … Continue reading
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NFL Week 17 Results and Season Prediction Summary
The regular season is in the bag, and before moving on to the playoff predictions (and how sad they look for the Lions), I need to wrap up the models’ performance this year. It will be a sad tale of … Continue reading
NFL Week 17 Predictions
Week 17 of the NFL season is a tough one for models and predictions in general. Some teams have their playoff spot completely determined, like the Pats, and so have nothing to play for and have to balance keeping sharp … Continue reading
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